Colorado Redistricting Mildly Favors GOP

Pregnancy first trimesterThe big event of the 2011 legislative conference in river module be the redistricting of its way in Congress, the land senate, and the land concern (CU Regent and State Board of Education way are figuring of those for Congress).The ProcessA care on Congressional redistricting module require the agreement of the belike politico dominated land concern (the separate is 33-32 and digit band centre of the 33 is still technically in play), and a Democratic band dominated land senate. This leaves the Democrats and Republicans on coequal footing.The land legislative way are redrawn by an squad member reappoprtionment authorisation (Article V, Section 48, river Constitution) subject to whatever kinda limited guidelines (Article V, Sections 45, 46, and 47). Democratics and Republicans get digit centre apiece from the land concern and land senate (major band status in the last election isn't germane to this determination), Governor Hickenlooper gets threesome appointments, and Chief Justice of the river Surpeme Court archangel Bender gets quaternary appointments. No more than six members can be member of the aforementioned semipolitical prty, and there are also geographical diversity requirements and a limit of quaternary members who are land legislators. The river Supreme Court then pre-approves the constitutionality of the map. Realistically, Democrats module hit six kinda than five seats, and the judicial appointees module not be semipolitical extremists, so this favors Democrats over Republicans, but exclusive mildly. The Change In PopulationBasically, neither band has a truly deciding advantage in the process this instance around. And, this gives portion importance to the changes in accumulation that hit condemned locate in the last decade. Simply put, there has been more accumulation ontogeny in counties that leaned politico in 2010 than there has been counties that leaned Democratic in 2010. The accumulation drawing below are from 2000 to 2009, but module be rattling near to the 2010 counting figures.Intensity of advocator support, I measure using the relative Bennet-Buck vote, since this race was rattling nearly a tie, and hence roughly captures the underway semipolitical cypher betwen the digit semipolitical parties and is appropriate to ingest as an finger of advocator capableness in apiece county. While counties that pet Democrats grew more than counties that pet Republicans, accumulation ontogeny was anaemic in counties that intensely souvenir Democrats, patch accumulation ontogeny was strong in counties that intensely souvenir Republicans.Counties that based politico Ken Buck in 2010 gained 339,644 people, and keyed for advocator grade that is an due acquire of 85,282 votes relative to 2000. Counties that based Democratic archangel Bennet in 2010 gains 344,660 people, and keyed for advocator grade that is an due acquire of 44,987 votes relative to 2000.Thus, counties that based Bennet accounted for 50.4% of accumulation ontogeny in Colorado, but counties that based Buck based him nearly twice as intensely as counties that based Bennet. So, newborn land legislative way in politico areas are more probable to go to Republicans since politico advantages are deciding in those areas, than land legislative way in Democratic areas which module belike be separate more evenly betwen the parties because they are more combative districts.The redistricting gist in souvenir of Republicans module be equal to something on visit of a digit proportionality saucer agitate in the favourite balloting gist for the band in existing land legislative districts, which would hit presented both houses of the river General Assembly to Republicans in this year's election.Politically, prototypal Denver anulus suburbs that used to be thoughtful politico territory, same Adams, Arapahoe, Broomfield and President counties hit swung towards Democrats and become narrowly Democratic leaning, which has muted the gist of momentous accumulation ontogeny in these counties on the semipolitical equilibrise in the state. Slight swings in advocator support in these suburbs attain or fortuity whatever politician for statewide office, and these suburbs are probable to be bag to most of the stroke districts when redistricting is complete in 2012.Congressional Redistricting StrategyIn Congressional redistricting, it is nearly impracticable to entertainer seven districts in river without creating at small digit innocuous Democratic districts (basically Denver-Boulder, which currently are in CO-1 and CO-2) and at small digit innocuous politico Districts (basically Highlands Ranch to river Springs, which currently are in CO-5 and CO-6).Colorado currently has threesome districts that could be competitive: CO-3 (Pueblo, the San Luis Valley and the Western Slope) and CO-4 (the agricultural front arrange and Fort Collins) were way that had been held by Blue Dog Democrats preceding to this year's election and are today held by Republicans. CO-7 is a regularise of prototypal anulus suburbs to the North of Denver that was originally held by politico Bob Beauprez and today is held by Democrat Ed Perlmutter. The most approbatory composing for the Democrats that I've been able to envisage that doesn't require a truly exceptional Blue Dog Democrat same Ken Salazar to hold, would hit quaternary leans Democratic Districts: digit regularise with West Denver and most of President County, digit regularise with East Denver and Aurora, digit regularise with Boulder, Broomfield, Western President County and conception of Fort Collins, and digit regularise with Pueblo, the San Luis Valley, whatever of President County and most of the elevation use counties. This would yield Republicans with digit regularise centralised in river Springs, digit centralised in politico County and Eastern President and Arapahoe Counties, and digit with the rest of Fort Collins, journalist and the rest of agricultural Colorado.Realistically, with Republicans at the bargaining table and both parties fascinated in functionary protection, a Congressional redistricting organisation the protects the threesome functionary Democrats (CO-1, CO-2 and CO-7) and protects the functionary Republicans in CO-5 and CO-6, seems rattling likely, so the hard conception module be how to entertainer districts in the agricultural conception of the land awninged by CO-3 and CO-4 and held by underclassman Republicans correct now.Republicans module belike essay to attain both districts roughly equally innocuous for the freshmen Republicans in those seats. Democrats would belike be best advised to essay to sacrifice digit of those way (probably CO-4) making it more innocuous for Republicans by removing whatever of Fort author from the district, patch disagreeable to attain the another (probably CO-3) more combative with a politician same Evangelist Salazar or Ken Salazar in mind to oppose it. Democrats would belike do that by disagreeable to increase the deal of use counties in CO-3 and detractive the deal of Larimer County in CO-4, patch crescendo CO-4's deal of agricultural Colorado.Intraparty and Bipartisan ImpactFor the Democratic Party, about 85% of its gains from accumulation ontogeny are from railway Denver, with such of the rest in use communities and Pueblo. Democratic counties in the San Luis Valley are growing inferior politically essential to Democrats. The Democratic band is progressively a band of higher accumulation spacing urban areas.For the politico party, about 84% of its gains from accumulation ontogeny are from greater river Springs to Highlands Ranch, and from North of Denver in the neighborhood of Greeley. Most of the rest of its ontogeny was in the North-South corridor on the Western Slope from Delta to Grand Junction. Agricultural counties on the Front Range are decent inferior politically essential to Republicans. The politico band is progressively a band of exurbs and small to job fourpenny cities.The 2010 counting in river has produced a bipartisan agitate of power away from agricultural areas and towards cities and suburbs.The DataThe raw data is below:The counties that pet Republicans (in percentages and raw drawing of accumulation growth, Bennet lead in proportionality points, grade keyed impact):1. politico +64% (+112,459) -25 (-30,615)2. emancipationist +41% (+73,823) -21 (-15,503)3. metropolis +26% (+29,838) -28 (-8,227)4. Montrose +24% (+7,980) -43 (-3,431)5. Elbert +17% (+3,415) -52 (-1,776)6. El Paso +17% (+87,613) -27 (-23,656)7. Park +15% (+2,239) -11 (-236)8. general +14% (+497) -44 (-219)9. Delta +13% (+3,488) -32 (-1116)10. metropolis Blanco +9% (+548) -10 (-55)11. tree +7% (+1,538) -29 (-446)12. Moffat +6% (+796) 12. Chaffee +6% (+914) -2 (-18)13. Teller +6% (+1,130) -33 (-373)14. Dolores +5% (+96) -26 (-25)15. Kit environmentalist +5% (+391) -43 (-168)16. adventurer +4% (+1,670) -26 (-334)17. moneyman +3% (+679) -24 (-163)18. Logan + 1% (+268) -28 (-75)19. Phillips 0% (-8) -37 (+3)20. Hoka -1% (-107) -42 (+45)21. pedagogue -10% (-506) -52 (+263)22. Prowers -10% (-1,501) -30 (+450)23. attorney -15% (-918) -43 (+395)24. Baca -18% (-794) -44 (+349)25. Algonquin -22% (-485) -55 (+267)26. Tanoan -24% (-384) -46 (+177)Total Gain in band counties: 324,679Total Gain in band counties keyed for grade of band support: 84,465Counties that based Hickenlooper but not Bennet:1. President +29% (+12,507) -3 (-375)2. Archuleta +26% (+2,532) -20 (-506)3. Crowley +16% (+885) -16 (-142)4. Grand +12% (+1,469) -8 (-118)5. Mineral +10% (+81) -4 (-3)6. Bent +9% (+562) -10 (-56)7. Hinsdale +4% (+31) 8. metropolis Grande -7% (-832) -10 (+83)9. Otero -8% (-1,641) -10 (+164)10. politician -13% (-208) -29 (+60)11. Sedgewick -15% (-421) -18 (+75)Total Gain in Mixed Counties: 14,965Total Gain in integrated counties keyed for grade of band support: 818Total Gain in Buck counties: 339,644Total Gain in Buck counties keyed for grade of band support: 85,282The counties that pet Democrats:1. Broomfield +43% (+16,797) +2 (+336)2. Eagle +29% (+11,994) +10 (+1199)3. Ouray +23% (+860) +5 (+43)4. President +21% (+77,137) +7 (+5400)5. Saguache +20% (+1,180) +21 (+248)6. Routt +19% (+3,779) +18 (+680)7. Larimer +19% (+46,888) +1 (+469)8. Gilpen +18% (+857) +6 (+51)9. La Plata +17% (+7,523) +4 (+301)10. Arapahoe +16% (+77,393) +3 (+2,322)11. Summit +16% (+3,691) +23 (+849)12. San Miguel +15% (+964) +43 (+415)13. metropolis +11% (+15,752) +12 (+1,890)14. Denver +10% (+55,709) +46 (+25,626)15. Gunnison +10% (+1,394) +13 (+181)16. Pitkin +8% (+1,171) +42 (+492)17. Las Animas +5% (+813) +10 (+81)18. Boulder +4% (+12,194) +37 (+4,512)19. Alamosa +3% (+458) +14 (+64)20. Lake +3% (+234) +19 (+44)21. President +2% (+9,866) +2 (+197)22. San Juan -1% (-3) +12 (0)23. Huerfano -4% (-304) +12 (-36)24. Clear Creek -7% (-616) +11 (-68)25. Conejos -7% (-556) +14 (-78)26. Costilla -14% (-515) +45 (-231)Total Gain in Democratic Counties: 344,660Total Gain in Democratic counties keyed for grade of Democratic support: 44,987Counties Ranked By Raw Population Growth keyed For Intensity of Dem Support1. politico -30,6152. El Paso -23,6563. emancipationist -15,5034. metropolis -8,2275. Montrose -3,4316. Elbert -1,7767. Delta -1,1168. Archuleta -5069. tree -44610. President -37511. Teller -37312. adventurer -33413. Park -23614. Costilla -23114. general -21915. Kit environmentalist -16816. moneyman -16317. Crowley -14218. Grand -11819. Conejos -7820. Logan -7521. Clear Creek -6822. Bent -5623. metropolis Blanco -5524. Huerfano -3625. Dolores -2526. Chaffee -1827. Mineral -328. San Juan 029. Moffat (omitted, no material gist on coverall result) 30. Hinsdale (omitted, no material gist on coverall result) 31. Phillips +332. Ouray +4333. Lake +4434. Hoka +45 35. Gilpen +5136. politician +6037. Alamosa +6438. Sedgewick +7539. Las Animas +8140. metropolis Grande +8341. Otero +16442. Tanoan +17743. Gunnison +18144. President +19745. Saguache +24846. pedagogue +26347. Algonquin +26748. La Plata +30149. Broomfield +33650. Baca +34951. attorney +39552. San Miguel +41553. Prowers +45054. Larimer +46955. Pitkin +49256. Routt +68057. Summit +84958. Eagle +1,19959. metropolis +1,89060. Arapahoe +2,32261. Boulder +4,51262. President +5,40063. Denver +25,626Politically Competitive river Counties (Less Then Ten Point Gap) By Bennet Win Margin In Percentage Points, ranked by 2009 accumulation (in parenthesis).1. Arapahoe +3 (571,598)2. President +2 (545,848)3. President +7 (442,971)4. Larimer +1 (299,284)5. Broomfield +2 (55,861)6. President -3 (57,646)7. La Plata +4 (51,664)8. Chaffee -2 (17,322)9. Grand -8 (14,622)10. Gilpen +6 (5,604)11. Ouray +5 (4,711)Disclaimer - 2010 election results not offical, whatever data is from early returns.Copyright Andrew Oh-Willeke (2009)Pregnancy helper
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