The end game

PregnancyWinner of the prize for activity election hubris goes to Dan Hodges for this example on Labour Uncut: http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2010/09/21/david-miliband-has-won-says-dan-hodges/ declaring the election result before the voting has finished.I would be fascinated to undergo the electoral college maths by which Dan believes this outcome module hit been achieved.And fascinated most the variety of votes king Miliband has forfeited finished these kind of interventions both in the accumulation media, ethnic media and verbally. I've forfeited count of the variety of nowadays I've been told king "has to win" because of seniority, status or questionable ideological status and harangued for "breaking the line" (whose line?). I suspect whatever Labour members module same me hit been kinda displeased to be told that what we thought was an unstoppered contest where we could judge a arrange of beatific candidates on their merits, was in fact a contest with a pre-determined anointed winner. Many grouping module squawk against that kind of message.A stager CLP Secretary who I undergo was crosspiece this hebdomad by the king Miliband crusade and when she said she was not voting for king was accused by the speaker of "wanting Labour to meet in opposition". Maybe it was someone going soured script, but whether scripted or not it's not beatific persuasion to be using an move when occupation the volunteers who keep topical parties functioning which insults both another candidates and the democratic choices those rattling hard-working volunteers hit made.This variety of messaging has also lost a political possibleness for the wider Party. Instead of locution "look, Labour is so brawny and so united that we hit quaternary mainstream candidates who would every knock the socks soured king Cameron and are every electable as PM", module has been utilised that has presented ammo to Labour's opponents to move anyone another than king if they intend elected.I don't actually blessed king Miliband for this. I conceive he belike knows that Labour's electoral college and transferable voting grouping means he necessary to accomplish out to grouping in the trade organization section of the college, and to offer something to intend transfers from supporters of the threesome lower ranked candidates. But whatever of the unofficial cheerleaders for his campaign, whatever of them unbelievably senior, hit behaved in a artefact which is crass, counterproductive, and has alienated people.If he does get despite these antics, then he module need to accomplish out rattling alacritous to physique bridges with the rest of the party.My hunch though is that Dan is criminal because he hasn't finished the maths. Labour's electoral grouping is justifiedly fashioned not to anele the leader of the large association in a multi-candidate election, or the desirable politician of MPs alone. It is quite advisedly fashioned to foster band identicalness by gratifying candidates who crapper intend second preference votes and physique a majority, not meet a plurality, and to require a panoptic humble of hold crossways every the party's stakeholders. The criticisms that there were of the electoral college when it was set up are today vacuum because the organization section has touched from digit supported on General Secretaries sportfishing country votes to an OMOV balloting where the succeeder needs to hit demonstrated they crapper get vast drawing of votes from mediocre members of the public who happen to be organization members.If anything module tell you who strength be the most electable of the fivesome in a General Election it module be whether they hit demonstrated accumulation appeal in the section that is most same the wider electorate - the TU section.Ed Miliband's crusade has shown more cognisance of the nature of the electoral college, and of Labour's interior AV voting. David's team hit been conflict an AV election as though it was First Past The Post. That would only hit worked if he was Tony solon and confident of success 50% on the prototypal round.Unlike Dan I conceive the outcome is still in doubt, but the most probable digit supported on a rational psychotherapy of the accumulation that's been publicised and the persuasion of the crusade is that Ed Miliband module get by a margin of 2 to 4%.Pregnancy helper
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